A comparative analysis of the carbon dioxide emissions-energy profile in Kuwait: status quo versus 2030

Abstract

Kuwait is among the leading countries in the world in terms of its per capita consumption of electricity and water based on the energy outlook report released in 2019. High rates of per capita consumption of both electricity and water place a large burden on power and desalination plants, increase the rate of pollution, and reduce the oil products and natural gas exports. In Kuwait, the CO₂ (carbon dioxide) emissions rates have increased from the energy sector due to the burning of significant amounts of fossil fuels to meet the demands of electricity generation and water supply. Under these circumstances, the per capita energy consumption and CO₂ emissions were 8.9 toe per capita and 21.1 tonnes of CO₂ per capita, respectively. The aim of this paper is to provide a comparative analysis model of the current and future 2030 CO₂ production totals from the energy sector in Kuwait and its impact to average atmospheric temperature and energy production. The aggregate carbon intensity (ACI) was used as an indicator to evaluate the current energy situation and predict a model for Kuwait’s CO2 emissions situation and identify how the energy demand and supply might evolve by 2030. The Fuel Analysis USEPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency) methodology was applied using necessary emission factors for the fuels consumed in power plants. The CO₂ emissions for 2030 and the electricity consumption trend were assumed to be the ‘business-as-usual’ model, with 5 fuel blend scenarios used as the predicted fuel blends to be consumed by the energy sector. The results found that the total CO₂ emissions from the energy sector and the ACI of Kuwait in 2016 were 48.6 MtCO₂, and 0.69 kgCO₂/kWhr, respectively. The results of the 2030 estimations indicated that using an 80% natural gas – 20% gas oil fuel blend in energy production resulted in CO₂ emissions of approximately 66 MtCO₂, with an ACI of 0.45 kgCO2/kWhr. The CO₂ offset from upcoming renewable energy projects is projected to be approximately 13%.