Predicting the innovation capability of investment projects using the BIFPET algorithm: a framework and case study

  • Serkan Altuntas Yildiz Technical University
  • Jonathan Davis University of Houston Downtown College of Business Texas, USA
  • Turkay Dereli 1) Iskenderun Technical University, Office of the President, 31200 Iskenderun, Hatay, Turkey. 2) Gaziantep University, Department of Industrial Engineering, 27310 Gaziantep, Turkey.
Keywords: Investment analysis, Fuzzy logic, Innovation capability, BIFPET algorithm, Carpet industry


This paper proposes a framework based on fuzzy probability for the prediction of innovation capability of an investment project. The prediction of innovation capability is a difficult task due to the fact that there exists almost no information source except for a project feasibility report reviewed before the investment in the project. The proposed framework integrates five clusters of factors, namely; human resources related factors, technology related factors, firm-features related factors, R&D factors and other factors categorized under the heading of “miscellaneous factors”. It uses an adapted version of the “Belief in Fuzzy Probability Estimations of Time” (BIFPET) algorithm for synthesizing all factors into a cohesive prediction on innovation capability. A case study is presented to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed framework. The results of this study show that the proposed framework can be used for the prediction of innovation capability of an investment project. It can be used by grant-giving institutions, governments or

Author Biographies

Serkan Altuntas, Yildiz Technical University
Department of Industrial Engineering
Jonathan Davis, University of Houston Downtown College of Business Texas, USA
College of Business
Turkay Dereli, 1) Iskenderun Technical University, Office of the President, 31200 Iskenderun, Hatay, Turkey. 2) Gaziantep University, Department of Industrial Engineering, 27310 Gaziantep, Turkey.
Department of Industrial Engineering


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